Israel Threatens Fresh Gaza Offensive as Ceasefire Quietly Collapses

In Khan Younis and Deir el-Balah, the sound of Israeli drones and controlled demolitions continues unabated. The supposed ceasefire that took hold in October has proven to be little more than a semantic exercise. Since the truce began, 828 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza, with bodies still being pulled from rubble with grim regularity.

Now Israeli officials are threatening to abandon the agreement entirely. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu cancelled a scheduled security cabinet meeting on Sunday, opting for smaller, more strategic consultations. Simultaneously, military pressure to resume full-scale operations has intensified. A senior Israeli General Staff official told Channel 15 that another round of fighting was “almost inevitable,” blaming Hamas’s refusal to surrender weapons and citing the International Stabilization Force’s inadequate oversight.

The military has quietly expanded territorial control to 59 percent of Gaza, steadily pushing the ceasefire’s agreed “Yellow Line” westward. Troops have been redeployed from the Lebanese front to strengthen positions across Gaza and the occupied West Bank.

In Cairo, US-backed mediator Nikolay Mladenov is pushing a new framework that demands Hamas disarm completely over 281 days in five stages. The catch: all humanitarian aid, reconstruction funds, and border crossing access hinge on weapons surrender. Hamas official Abdul Jabbar Said told Palestinian media that a unified front of Palestinian factions has rejected this outright, insisting instead on Israel’s full implementation of the original ceasefire’s first phase, which promised 600 daily aid trucks that never materialized.

Palestinian officials frame the demand as a political trap. Political analyst Wissam Afifa argues that Hamas is linking any security arrangements directly to Palestinian statehood and the end of occupation. The US and Israel, he contends, are deliberately decoupling weapons from political guarantees, weaponizing humanitarian aid as leverage.

Some analysts suggest the renewed threats are theatrical. Military expert Mamoun Abu Amer describes them as a smokescreen to pressure mediators and boost Netanyahu’s standing ahead of October elections. The Israeli military is exhausted, with reservists averaging 80 days of annual service. Reopening a Gaza front while southern Lebanon remains unstable would devastate Israeli strategy.

For Gazans, such calculations offer no comfort. The death toll since the war began now exceeds 72,608, with three more killed in Israeli strikes on Sunday alone.